The Deeny equation

Political anoraks might enjoy this formula on the West Tyrone vote:


First take the total number of valid votes from the 2005 general election (43,487) and subtract the number of unspoiled votes from 2010 (37,275), to work out the drop in voter turnout. That gives you 6212:

43487 – 37275 = 6212

Then add the combined gain by the five parties who took an actual increase in votes for 2010, 2005 figures in brackets:

Sinn Fein 18,050 (16,910) +1140; UUP 5,281 (2,981) +2300; SDLP 5,212 (3,949) +1,263; Alliance +859; Ciaran McClean +508 equals 6,07o (DUP lost 377 votes)

1140 + 2300 + 1263 +859 + 508 = 6070

Now take the total votes taken by Kieran Deeny in 2005’s general election: 11,905 and subtract the total number of gains by all parties in 2010:

11905 – 6070 = 5835

Now add that figure to the total number of votes lost by the DUP in 2010 from the previous general election: 377

5835 + 377 = 6212

Exactly the drop in the number of votes for 2010!

What does this stunning equation tell us? Well precious little once you factor in the number of new voters on the register since 2005 and the number dropped off, plus the fact that some who voted in 2005 didn’t vote in 2010. However it does appear to suggest a considerable number of the Deeny cross-community vote didn’t come out to back any of the 2010 candidates. What it also proves is that there is potential for another cross-community candidate IF Deeny doesn’t stand for Assembly next year and IF they can galvanize these middle ground voters, who are notoriously difficult to motivate behind traditional politics.

Take a look at the 2010 data here on the Electoral Office website.

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About AldousDuke
Mid Tyrone journalist, not so freelance any more.

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